International relations expert and political analyst Sass Rogando Sasot has predicted a BBM win based on the latest survey from Publicus Asia wherein BBM got 56.7% of the votes.
However, it does not mean BBM cannot lose to his rivals, though the chance is slim, if their respective campaign teams do all the tricks in the playbook and get all the swing voters from each of their rivals.
Sasot arrived with her conclusion of a BBM win by circling on the particular figure, which she believed is crucial in this election – the swing voters.
You may read the full FB post of Sasot now and please comment below if you agree with her analysis.
ESTIMATING SWING VOTERS
The Publicus Survey has this added feature about firmness of choice. This is a good way to estimate possible swing voters. To get the possible swing voters, I added all the columns except ” “I will definitely not change my choice” because that’s the only column that has zero probability of changing one’s votes.
Among the presidential candidates, BBM got the lowest possible swing voters: 30.1%
Leni’s swing voters = 41.6%
Isko = 64.1%
Go = 54.8%
Manny = 53.3%
Ping = 69.8%
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What can we infer from this?
BBM and Leni have the strong political bases. BBM has the strongest. This means that no matter issue you throw, only 30.1% of those who chose BBM would probably change their mind, while 41.6% of Leni’s would change their mind.
To defeat BBM, you must make sure you don’t lose your swing voters and you get the swing voters of all candidates, including BBM’s.
It’s going to be a very, very, difficult climb. WHY? At this point, BBM’s camp doesn’t need to throw mud because by simply not making any candidate look bad he’s already got this very high rating. The other candidate would need to throw all the mud they can get at BBM AND they should also throw mud at other candidates in order to get all their swing voters. If they can successfully get ALL the swing voters of other candidates, they have a narrow chance of defeating BBM.
If anything else fails, there’s always Smarmagic.
Netizens agree with Sasot’s analysis as shown in the comments below.
Agree, Sass. Also, taking the most conservative scenario that all others can convert the 30% “soft” voters into their camps, it will still be 45% for BBM – a big win.
Indeed.. No need for mudslinging..
There may be pro-Duterte electorate but not as hardline as the loyalists. Pro Duterte voted for him in the same spirit with the loyalists did when they vote for him. The pro Duterte voted not as intense as to conviction the loyalists voted Duterte and that’s for sure. The evidence is the TOTAL percentages of the swing votes from all the opponents of BBM. He, BBM, having garnered more than half the voter’s population is the evidential factor that most swing voters would go BBM too. All those probable hardline pro Duterte are confined only to Davao where Duterte served as City Mayor. The rest of the entire pro Duterte must be pro BBM , the evidence is the rating Go of Davao is getting. The singular driving force uniting the loyalists and the pro-Duterte in the 2016 election is obviously, the ardent position to end up the LIBERAL DILAWAN control on the lives of the people. They really suffered exhaustion from those Liberals since Cory. The pro-Duterte to swing vote to others but BBM are most probably the former hardline DILAWAN who shifted pro-Duterte for some other personal reason but certainly unlike the conviction of the loyalists and most of the pro-Duterte-pro-BBM at the same time.
Reaction?
Source: For the Motherland – Sass Rogando Sasot
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