Tuesday, April 12, 2022

Netizen's brilliant analysis answers the whys Leni Robredo can't breach ceiling to catch up BBM at the helm and replicate 2016 feat


While the Robredo camp led by the OVP Spokesman Atty. Barry Gutierrez is filled with optimism that the 9% increase in Leni Robredo’s rating in the latest Pulse Asia survey indicates what they called the turning of the tide, a dissertation put forward by a Robredo critic attempts to douse cold water to the jubilant mood of the Robredo camp.


The dissertation of the Robredo critic stated that Leni Robredo is nothing without the anti-Marcos vote.

The author Krizette Chu of Manila Bulletin explained that her dissertation will show why Leni’s numbers can’t breach the ceiling and why Marcos is a constant variable in her campaign.

Basically, Chu said that Leni Robredo supporters aren’t really pro-Leni but rather rabidly anti-Marcos and anti-Duterte.

Chu’s thesis statement are anchored on two things—first, observation. Second, numbers.

With that said, Chu implied that Leni’s chances of overhauling BBM’s lead and scoring a come-from-behind victory is nil.

You may now read Chu’s original FB post below.


A dissertation on why Leni’s numbers can’t break the (very low) ceiling and why she really needs to keep mentioning Marcos in her campaign.

Most of Leni’s supporters aren’t decidedly pro Leni, they’re rabidly anti Marcos. Which is why she has a low ceiling and will not break that ceiling.

So my thesis statement rests on two things—first, observation. Second, numbers.

So on the first one: The soft Leni but hard Anti BBM vote. They’re the ones who choose Leni because BBM is the alternative. If Leni doesn’t win, BBM will.

For example, I get to keep some of the the true and few Leni supporter friends I have even when I am very rabid anti Leni because they don’t take offense when I criticize their bet. They don’t take it personally. First, they’re honest enough to say that Leni isn’t their ultimate bet—but they have no choice because she is the frontrunner against Marcos. Had they a better choice, they wouldn’t choose Leni. But because she is the only candidate closest to BBM, they have to throw their support behind her to stop a Marcos presidency. I get it and don’t begrudge it.

Then there are those who are anti-PRRD, so they think Leni is the only true Opposition. How can she not be come off as only real Opposition when all she did was oppose in the 6 years she was VP? The other bets at one time showed support for the PRRD admin. Lacson, Isko, Manny supported different facets / programs of the current admin. Lacson’s ATL, Isko pre pandemic/pre plans to join the race, Manny with PDP LABAN.

So the very few—the ones who hate Duterte and decided to hate him because they easily fall into propaganda without doublechecking, have decided to support Leni.

Meaning, they have come into supporting Leni late, and many don’t love her the way the rabid loyalists love BBM.

PS: Do I think that a pro Duterte can ever choose Leni? No. I scoff at those who claim they support Leni now but still support Duterte. Nope. Not with the many roadblocks she put before this admin by continually opposing every single thing. Not when she lied about our police before the UN and embarrassed our country. Not when she lied about coordinating with AFP during natural disasters but apparently it was just some people and not the organization, all to push the idea that she’s always the first on the ground —which would be fine except in her frantic push for power she diminishes the frontliners on the ground who have been there even before storms hit.

So many vote Leni because they have no choice but Leni.

The numbers back this.


In June 2021, Leni was one of the least favorites in the Presidential Preference surveys. Hindi pa actual Presidential surveys but preference palang.

She only got 6 percent.

Sara was as we all know the frontrunner, followed by Isko, Bongbong, Grace, and Manny. Leni was last.

Leni was last—let that marinate—during a time she had already showed off as the “first on the ground” during the pandemic

Another proof that she didn’t have solid support: it took MONTHS for her own people and allies—the 1Sambayan group, to declare their support for her.

It took them MONTHS to decide between Robredo and Isko. That’s how weak she was

Between June and September of 2021, the Presidential Preference survey only showed a 2 percent increase from 6 to 8 percent.

Her number has slowly risen because the anti Marcos vote solidified behind one candidate. Many undecideds decided to back Leni because they have no other choice.

Do they think she’s brilliant? No

Do they think she’s pure? No

Do they think she’s great? No

Do they think she has the makings of a great leader? No. Under her LP is a shadow of its former self and she couldn’t even unite the Opposition. They even lashed back at her.

That is what Leni has—not a solid Leni vote, just the anti Marcos vote. The 8 percent from September is now at least 24 percent (ceiling of 25-28 percent before election) because she has the anti Marcos vote.

And this is ladies and gentleman the reason why the lady from Naga cannot campaign without her anti Marcos platform because she and her team knows that this is the only reason she even has the numbers to begin with.

On her own, without the anti Marcos vote, Leni is nothing.

O mamaya na ulit kain muna ako chicken rice.


Source: Krizette Laureta Chu